This is a preliminary reconstruction of historical solar maximum and minimums for 1100-1300. It shows a uniformed intensity (or sunspot number) and my estimated of the dates when solar maximum and solar minimum occurred.
Currently I’ve compiled the dates for a historical reconstruction of solar maximum and minimums for 1100-2013 and it should be completed in a few weeks. There’s a very interesting period between 1624 and 1708 which covers the Maunder Minimum, in the data during this period there appears to be an extra solar minimum, this suggests that the sun’s magnetic polarities did not flip, resulting in a prolonged period of solar minimum, possibly lasting as long as 33 years.
When I completed this reconstruction, I compared it with historical naked eye observations and there is a very high degree of agreement between the timing of large sunspot groups being observed and the reconstruction of solar maximums.
The next stage will be to estimate the sunspot number values, there are two techniques I’m working on which I will be testing, this takes time as the values will have to be in monthly averages, this adds up to 2400 values to workout for over 200 years of data, gather and plot, and up to 4800 values for the two different data techniques.
I have found an interesting trend in the difference of change between the two orbital ellipses of Uranus and Jupiter. The red trend-line is the difference of change between the two orbital ellipses of Uranus and Jupiter. The blue line is the trend of sunspot area numbers.
The red trend-line is the difference of change between the two orbital ellipses of Uranus and Jupiter. The blue line is the trend of sunspot area numbers.
Posted in Astronomy, Science, Science
Tagged ellipses, giant sunspots, Greenwich Observatory, Jupiter, orbital ellipses, plot, solar minimum, space weather prediction, Sun, sunspot area, sunspots, trend-line, Uranus
We have now entered into the second half of Solar Cycle 24 and as expected the Suns magnetic field has recently flipped.
During the first half of the current solar cycle solar physicists noted; that sun spot activity on the suns Northern hemisphere had increased resulting in the highest sunspot number of SC24 during November of 2011, while the southern hemisphere had less sunspot activity, currently the complete opposite is occurring (see latest HMII below), the southern hemisphere is showing an Increase in spot activity while the northern hemisphere is showing less spot activity, this should no doubt produce a second high peak of sunspot numbers for SC24 but it’s not expected to be much higher than the peak during the first half of the solar cycle.
Overall SC24 is continuing to be a very weak solar cycle, correctly predicted by Leif Svalgaard, Edward W. Cliver and Yohsuke Kamide in the GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS back in 2004.
Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L01104, doi:10.1029/2004GL021664, 2005
Continuing the trend of a very weak solar cycle 24, the Sun is blank again at solar maximum, below is the latest HMI Intensitygram from the 8th of September 2013.
Blank Sun at Solar Maximum
Posted in Astronomy, Science
Tagged Astronomy, Blank Sun, hmi, Science, solar activity, Solar Cycle, solar cycle 24, Solar Maximum, space weather prediction, Sun, sunspots
Using the orbital values of Neptune, Uranus and Jupiter as a coupled system, with the idea in mind that the Sun and Solar system would have an ‘integral relationship’ I have gathered orbital data which I have then used as a guide to produced a graph of solar cycle 24 and 25.
Planet/Solar 2 below was the result.
Planet/Solar 1 is what the orbital data used as the guide looks like graphed against the Sunspot estimate.
Although at this stage the estimate is manually produced by keeping two separate trends inline it shows that solar cycle 12 appears to be a good match for solar cycle 25.
I’ve been working on a more detailed version stretching from 1749-2300 that will give a much clearer idea of what shape future solar cycles may take. that is if there is in fact an ‘integral relationship’ between the sun and the solar system.
Posted in Astronomy, Science
Tagged climate, coupled system, experiment, integral relationship, orbital data, Science, Solar Cycle, solar cycle 24, Solar cycle 24-25 forcasting experiment, solar cycle 25, Sun and Solar system
While reading this interesting paper on mean motion resonances (MMR) Between Saturn and meteor swarms, here on earth, I was a bit surprised that it was presumed that; Saturnian resonances are either too weak or practically non-existent.
“Most scientists seem to have presumed that Saturnian resonances are either too weak or practically non-existent when it comes to producing enhanced meteor phenomena on Earth. Our simulations here show that this assumption is not true. We find conclusive evidence that strong Saturnian resonances are feasible as well as effective in trapping large numbers of meteoroids which can lead to formation of compact dust trails in space.”
Even though rare it should still be useful for understanding past observations of spectacular meteor outbursts and forecasting future meteor outbursts as the paper suggests.
“Even though Saturnian resonances are quite rare compared to Jovian resonances in the context of known meteoroid streams, the newly found Saturnian resonances in this work show significant strength and stability which can in turn relate to spectacular meteor outbursts in the past and future.”
The paper is titled “Saturnian mean motion resonances in meteoroid streams” by A. Sekhar and D. J. Asher and can be found at the Armagh observatory website http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/